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Forecasting common air quality indices

The work conducted under the Citeair II project lead to the development of a statistical forecast of pollutant concentrations by mixing raw forecast from large-scale Chemistry Transport Modelling (CTM) and in situ measurements in cities. Applications with data from Rotterdam, Seville, Prague, Marseille, Paris, Gdansk, Brno, Leicester, Maribor and Gothenburg show the robustness and reliability of the approach. The use of the statistical forecast methodology developed within Citeair offers a unique opportunity for cities that donít have the resources to develop their own forecast. In comparison to a stand-alone forecast the application of the Citeair forecast is relatively simple.

Scripts for computing and validating the statistical model for one station and one pollutant are now available and shared under licensing agreement with Citeair II partners. The programs can be used by anyone with their own chemistry transport model to improve their forecast. Users who want to base the forecast on CHIMERE simulation can contact the PREV'Air team for the data (prevair@ineris.fr).

Findings from the development, analysis and testing of the statistical forecast as well as advice on how  to apply the methodology can be found in the guidebook.

 


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